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URN: urn:nbn:de:gbv:705-opus-20930
URL: http://opus.unibw-hamburg.de/volltexte/2009/2093/
Horgos, Daniel ;
Zimmermann, Klaus W.
It Takes Two to Tango: Lobbies and the Political Business Cycle
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Dokument 1.pdf (672 KB)
Kurzfassung in englisch
With interest groups significantly affecting economic performance (according to Mancur
Olson) and a vital interest of governments in economic growth and low unemployment in
order to win elections, there should be a link between political business cycles and the
evolution of lobbies over time which has totally been ignored in the literature up to now. In
modeling this link in a theoretical and empirical way we try to answer two questions: Is it
possible to interpret Olson´s Law of Interest Groups not only as a long run phenomenon but
also in a short-run perspective, integrating it into the theory of political business cycles? And:
is there any empirical evidence that a typical pattern of lobby behavior and macroeconomic
status exists which is consistent over a couple of election periods? In order to investigate these
issues, we first analyze some literature that is usually ignored in the more technical
contributions evaluating Olson´s law, but proves to be highly important as background for
answering the above mentioned questions. We then illustrate how a model consisting of
Olson´s interest-groups theory and the endeavors of governments to win the majority of votes
in elections could look like, before we perform a time-series-analysis based on the lobby-list
of the German Bundestag in order to gain some more insights into the relationships between
lobbies, governments and voters. As a result we discover a consistent behavior of the lobbies
over the cycle that boils down to some kind of non-aggression pact between the lobbies and
the governments irrespective of their political alignments.
Freie Schlagwörter (englisch):
interest groups , political business cycles , growth , unemployment , inflation
Institut 1:
Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Wirtschaftspolitik / Prof. Dr. Dluhosch (ehem. PD Dr. Braeuninger)
Institut 2:
Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Finanzwissenschaft / Prof. Dr. Ivanova-Stenzel (ehem. Prof Dr. Zimmermann)
DDC-Sachgruppe:
Wirtschaft
Dokumentart:
Arbeits- / Diskussionspapier
Quelle:
Diskussionspapier Nr. 98, September 2009
Sprache:
englisch
Erstellungsjahr:
2009
Publikationsdatum:
04.09.2009
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